Features06 · Forecast
06 · The model

A model with drivers, not guesses.

You don't know the future. You don't have to. Move headcount, ARPU, CAC and churn — Arx derives your growth trajectory. Then it compares the results against industry benchmarks — the way a partner would.

FORECAST · v6
5-year P&L · scenario · base
Bear● BaseBull
$1.2M
$4.2M
'26'27'28'29'30
ARR · end '27
$4.2M +220%
Runway · post-raise
22.5 mo
★ UNIQUE TO ARX · DRIVERS-DRIVEN

Move the dials. Don't guess the numbers.

At early stage, the top-line numbers cannot be known. But drivers can.

Arx builds from what you can actually know: your team, sales cycle, ACV. The model derives revenue, gross margin, burn, runway, and cash flow.

  • dozens of driversHeadcount, comp, ACV, marketing budgets — the variables you can defend.
  • Built-in formulasStartup math (LTV/CAC, payback, NDR) wired in so you don't reinvent it in Excel.
  • Three scenariosBear, base, bull. Use one to set runway, the others to show range.
  • Connects to your Data RoomAdjust a driver in the model, the file in the data room updates within seconds.
Drivers · base scenarioSCENARIO ↗
Sales hires per year
Avg fully-loaded $180K · ramp 4mo
6 / YR
ARPU at signing
Self-serve + assisted blend
$1,820 / MO
Net retention
12-month NDR · upsell + churn
118%
Gross margin
Net of hosting, support, payments
78%
CAC payback
Months to recoup acquisition cost
11.4 MO
Annual logo churn
Mid-market segment
8%
S&M as % of revenue
Driven by hires + headcount
42%
★ UNIQUE TO ARX · INDUSTRY BENCHMARKS

Read your model through the eyes of an investor.

A partner reads your forecast and immediately maps it to a few numbers — Rule of 40, burn multiple, payback, NDR, gross margin. Arx computes the same numbers on your model and shows you where you sit against industry benchmarks for your business model and round size.

The point isn't to chase the benchmark. The point is to know which fight you're walking into. If your payback is 26 months and the golden number is 12, you'll need a story about why. Arx tells you the story is needed before the partner asks.

  • Five core metricsRule of 40, burn multiple, NDR, CAC payback, gross margin.
  • Cohorted by stageSeed B2B SaaS, not generic "tech."
  • Updated quarterlyFrom the same sources partners read (OpenView SaaS benchmarks, Iconiq Growth, etc).
  • Action chips"Move CAC payback to top quartile" — Arx tells you which drivers would do it.
BENCHMARKS
Vs. seed-stage B2B SaaS · last 4 quarters
Rule of 40 · growth + margin
52
0204060+
● Top quartile. Investors will not push on this.
Burn multiple · $burn / $ARR added
1.8
01.535+
● Healthy. Median seed is ~2.5; top quartile is ≤1.5.
CAC payback · months
11.4
691218+
● Median for assisted seed. Have a story ready about why it lengthens at scale.
Net retention · NDR
118%
80%100%115%125%+
● Above the median. Partners will ask how you got there.
SCENARIOS

Bear, base, bull — side by side.

Arx ships three scenarios out of the box — bear, base, bull. Swap between them like layers; compare runway, ARR, hiring on one chart.

  • Three by defaultEach is a full set of drivers — no overlap, no confusion.
  • Talk to the roomAll scenarios get added to your data room, and investors can easily toggle between each of them.
SCENARIOS · 3
ARR by year, all scenarios
'26'27'28'29'30
BEAR
$2.4M
BASE
$4.2M
BULL
$7.8M
CONNECTED

The forecast writes back to the room.

Edit a driver. The model updates instantly. Data room, dashboard, and Ask Arx all read from the same model — one source of truth.

  • Data roomOne-click refresh into every active investor room.
  • DashboardMonths-of-runway, burn, ARR — all read live from this model.
  • UpdatesCompose the next monthly note with this month's plan already populated.
DATA FLOW
Forecast · downstream effects
EDIT
You move "ARPU" from $1,640 → $1,820
→ ROOM
Re-export CSV to 4 rooms · one click
manual
→ CAP
Pro-forma post-money updates to $14.0M
2s
→ DASH
Months-of-runway changes from 19.2 → 22.5
2s
→ AI
Ask Arx re-runs Rule of 40 (was 47 → now 52)
3s
→ UPDATE
May draft pre-fill shows new annualised run-rate
4s
Why this matters

The model you show to partners cannot be a guess.

It should be a position. A drivers-driven forecast lets you defend each number with a decision — "we will hire six AEs because…" rather than "we projected revenue would be…". Partners ask better questions when there's something to answer.

Build your forecast →
YOUR MODEL · AT A GLANCE
52
RULE OF 40 SCORE
22.5mo
RUNWAY · POST-RAISE
1.8x
BURN MULTIPLE
118%
NET DOLLAR RETENTION
Begin here

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